The stock market trades the future – not everyone provides the information investors need

Rarely has the environment for listed companies been as challenging as it is today. Trade conflicts, geopolitical escalations and a volatile global economy are making reliable forecasting a genuine challenge. Managing capital market expectations is becoming more difficult for companies, yet at the same time it is becoming all the more important.

Against this backdrop, Kirchhoff Consult and the Deutsche Schutzvereinigung für Wertpapierbesitz e.V. (DSW) have once again analysed the forecast reports of DAX 40 companies. Conducted regularly since 2005, the study assesses how transparently DAX companies communicate their future business development on the basis of 15 criteria. The analysis is based on the 2025 annual reports, with 38 of the 40 DAX companies included in the study.

More leaders, fewer in the middle

The key finding is this: 17 out of 38 companies achieve a high level of forecast quality, three more than in the previous year. At the same time, the number of companies with low transparency rose from one to two. As a result, the medium category has shrunk from 23 to 19 companies. The study identifies Deutsche Telekom and Fresenius as best-practice examples. New entrants to the highest category are RWE, Mercedes-Benz and DAX newcomer GEA Group.

This development is no coincidence. Companies that view forecast transparency as a strategic instrument actively invest in the quality of their forward-looking communication – and are rewarded for doing so with analyst confidence, investor stability and reputational gains. By contrast, those that do no more than meet the legal minimum run the risk of falling short of capital market expectations. Legally, companies are required only to make qualitative comparative statements, that is, to indicate whether a metric is expected to rise, fall or remain unchanged. The law does not require figures. The capital market, however, does.

Forecasts between substance and room for improvement

Earnings forecasts at both Group and segment level are of particularly high relevance for investors. Accordingly, 35 of the 38 companies analysed quantify their expected Group earnings. At segment level, 22 companies publish quantified earnings figures. However, transparency remains particularly lacking when it comes to medium-term targets: only five companies provide a medium-term earnings outlook beyond the current year.

One structural gap remains sustainability communication. Only ten companies forecast non-financial performance indicators, even though many DAX companies have publicly set themselves ambitious climate targets. The forecast report, however, is the real litmus test: if a company does not anchor sustainability there as a management metric, it signals – whether intentionally or not – that sustainability does not yet play an equivalent role in day-to-day business. With increasing regulatory pressure from the CSRD, this is likely to change over the medium term. Those companies that have already taken this step are gaining a credibility advantage today with ESG-focused investors.

Transparency is not an end in itself, but an investment in the relationship with the capital market. Companies that consistently communicate more than is required by regulation create a trust advantage that becomes particularly valuable when forecasts need to be revised. In a volatile environment, that is not a question of if, but when. Investor expectations in terms of clarity and substance will continue to rise in the years ahead. Those who invest in quality now will then be communicating from a position of strength.

The 2026 forecast report study shows a DAX landscape in transition: more companies with high forecast quality, but at the same time new weaknesses at the lower end of the scale and structural gaps in sustainability forecasts and medium-term guidance. Whether this will develop into a sustainable trend or whether the gap will continue to widen will become clear in the years ahead.
 

The full article is available at the following link (German only).