Kirchhoff Consult and DSW: Forecast transparency of DAX 40 companies declines slightly

• Only 14 of the DAX 40 companies still achieve high forecast transparency (previous year: 18)
• 23 companies with medium forecast transparency (previous year: 17)
• Sartorius is the only company with low forecast transparency
• Best practice: Deutsche Telekom and Fresenius with particularly transparent reports
• Only 10 DAX 40 companies provide an outlook on key sustainability figures
• Only three companies provide a concrete medium-term outlook

The Hamburg-based communications and strategy consultancy for financial communications and ESG Kirchhoff Consult, together with the Deutsche Schutzvereinigung für Wertpapierbesitz e.V. (DSW), has once again examined the transparency of the forecast reports of DAX 40 companies. The study, which has been conducted regularly since 2005, evaluates both qualitative and quantitative statements on the future business development of companies. The current analysis is based on the forecast reports from the 2024 annual reports. There was one change in the DAX 40 compared to the previous year in terms of the companies examined: Covestro had to leave the index and was replaced by medtech company Fresenius Medical Care. In addition, Airbus and Qiagen did not submit forecast reports, which is why they were not included in the analysis.

Based on 15 criteria, the forecast reports were divided into the transparency categories "high", "medium" and "low". With 14 companies, only around a third of the DAX 40 companies achieved the "high" category. These include the best practice reports of Deutsche Telekom and the healthcare provider Fresenius. In the previous year, there were still 18 companies. The pharmaceutical and laboratory supplier Sartorius is the only company with low forecast transparency, as the company did not quantify either the Group result or the segment results. Sartorius only published a quantified forecast in its quarterly report in May 2025. 23 companies presented forecast reports with medium transparency (previous year: 17).

With an unchanged methodology, the current survey therefore shows a slight overall decline in forecast quality. The corporations are focusing on a smaller number of forecast figures. The evident reluctance to make concrete forecasts is likely to be primarily due to the uncertain market environment. This is particularly attributable to international conflicts.

Jens Hecht, CFA, Managing Partner at Kirchhoff Consult: "The current geopolitical risks and economic conditions pose major challenges for companies. Unpredictable developments are on the agenda . Nevertheless, companies should not limit the transparency of their outlook. Particularly in difficult phases, investors expect well-founded forecasts on which to base their investment decisions. Good communication creates trust. This principle must continue to be upheld."

The vast majority quantify consolidated earnings

The most important criterion in the survey is the forecast of future Group earnings. 35 companies quantify this key figure in their forecast reports. Compared to the previous year, this is an increase of two companies. Results at segment level are quantified by 24 of the 38 DAX companies surveyed. Once again this year, only three companies are looking to the future with a quantified earnings outlook beyond the current financial year. The quality of the forecast has declined, particularly with regard to the criteria of consolidated and segment revenue and cost development.

Marc Tüngler, Managing Director of Deutsche Schutzvereinigung für Wertpapierbesitz e.V. (DSW): “Comprehensible earnings forecasts are essential for shareholders to be able to assess the future development of a company. At the same time, the current global volatility makes it considerably more difficult to provide comprehensible, valid forecasts. The relevance of comprehensive, short, medium and long-term forecasts and - above all - their underlying assumptions is therefore increasing significantly, making them even more of a core strategic task for top management. In times like these, it is therefore more about the derivation and comprehensibility of the forecast than about the last decimal place."

Transparency is not dependent on the length of the report

As in previous years, the current study also shows that there is not necessarily a correlation between the number of pages and the level of transparency. For example, Deutsche Telekom once again took the top spot with the longest forecast report (eleven pages). However, companies such as Bayer, DHL Group, Hannover Rück and Siemens also achieve a high level of transparency with two to three-page reports. This year's average is 4.1 pages (previous year: 4.5). Sartorius publishes an above-average report with five pages, but falls into the lowest transparency category.

Non-financial performance indicators of secondary importance

This year, the importance of non-financial performance indicators in the forecast reports remains low: out of 38 DAX 40 companies surveyed, only 10 publish forecasts on non-financial target figures. Although the number of reporting companies has fallen from 12 to 10 compared to the previous year, the number of quantified disclosures has increased to 9 (previous year: 8).

Vincent Furnari, Managing Partner at Kirchhoff Consult: "The capital market expects companies to incorporate potential sustainability and climate risks for their business model and company valuation into their strategic planning. This should actually result in sustainability and climate indicators also being taken into account in forecasts. However, only ten companies provide transparency in this area and link sustainability and financial targets.”

The study can be found here.